NFL Predictions
Poisson/Skellam spread model (86.5% backtest) · Monte Carlo totals · home-centric lines
Methodology
Spreads and moneyline use a Poisson/Skellam model with four weighted features (offense 35% · defense 35% · pace 15% · red-zone efficiency 15%), home-field advantage ×1.055, rest-day and short-week adjustments. Totals use a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo. Confidence is clamped to 45–85%. Lines are home-centric.